Will the U.S invade iran by 21 of april?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed U. S. military invasion of Iran is publicly announced by an official U. S. government source (e. g. , Department of Defense, White House) or the Iranian government, and reported by a reputable news outlet, on or before 2026-04-21 23:59:59 UTC. If no such announcement occurs by that time, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Al Jazeera. If Al Jazeera does not publish a report on the event, the next sources in order of precedence are Reuters, BBC News, and The New York Times. The earliest report meeting the definition from any of these sources will be used to determine the outcome. If the invasion is announced after the cutoff, is later retracted, or is subject to significant uncertainty, the market will still resolve based on the information available at the cutoff time. No arbitrary fallback to "No" or "50‑50" will be applied; the outcome is determined solely by whether a qualifying announcement existed before the deadline.